Stages of Systems Analysis According to E. P. Golubkov
- Problem Formulation
- Research
- Analysis
- Preliminary Judgment
- Confirmation
- Final Judgment
- Implementation of the Adopted Decision
Systems analysis is typically carried out through iterative approximation toward the required results and comprises the following stages (procedures).
1. Problem Formulation
This stage involves defining ultimate goals and the range of issues requiring resolution, analyzing the conditions under which the system operates, and establishing the constraints imposed on the system's operating conditions.
2. Research
Data necessary for solving the problem are identified, analyzed, and synthesized; the structure of the system (problem) under analysis is studied; relationships are established; and various courses of action for solving the problem are identified. During preliminary problem analysis, strive to identify the most comprehensive set of possible solutions.
Usually, there are several different options for achieving the goals. In this case, at the research stage, it is necessary to select options for detailed examination in subsequent analysis stages, ensuring that obviously irrational courses of action are excluded. Systems analysis specialists, in order to avoid a narrow departmental approach, should be familiar with various perspectives on the problem being solved.
Modern problems of planning and management are complex, and their solutions require consideration of the entire set of key factors that influence them. Simplifying the task to the examination of individual elements while neglecting their interrelationships leads to incorrect decisions. The most comprehensive results are expected when the research group conducting the systems analysis includes a specialist with at least a general understanding of the problem as a whole.
The first two stages are the least formalizable. When defining the goals of activity and the paths to achieving them, one must rely to the greatest extent on creative thinking, prior work experience, and the intuition of the specialists conducting the systems analysis and making the decision.
3. Analysis
This stage involves building models, selecting effectiveness criteria and using them to predict the consequences of choosing one or another course of action, and comparing various solution options from the standpoint of these consequences. Since models are constructed for a specific range of parameter variation, the analysis of the results should be carried out within those bounds.
Economic-mathematical methods and models possess great capabilities; however, one must not forget that they should be applied in conjunction with informal methods of systems analysis, otherwise the problem may be simplified or even distorted to such an extent that it loses practical value. Some problems can only be solved by informal techniques.
As a result of the comparative analysis of various options for solving the problems that have arisen, recommendations are developed for the decision-maker. This, in essence, is the product of systems analysis. However, the consideration of the systems analysis process would be incomplete without a brief description of the subsequent stages of bringing its recommendations to practical implementation.
4–5. Preliminary Judgment and Confirmation of Adopted Decisions
Based on the data obtained in the second and third stages of systems analysis, along with any other available information, the best paths to achieving the goals are selected, and conclusions and recommendations regarding the course of action are developed. As noted above, when choosing one or another solution option, the decision-maker may consider additional factors unknown to the systems analysts.
6. Final Judgment (Final Selection of the Best Solution Option)
This is made on the basis of experimental verification of the results of the fourth stage of analysis.
7. Implementation of the Adopted Decision
The adopted decision is communicated to those responsible for implementation, its execution and monitoring are organized, and if necessary, corrections are made to the decision.
Any analysis, to one degree or another, contains these seven stages. The first stage is carried out jointly by the decision-maker and those preparing the decision (systems analysts). The research and analysis stages are performed by systems analysts. The fourth and sixth stages of systems analysis are typically carried out by the decision-making executive, while the fifth may be performed by analysts through simulation or may not be performed at all.
The above shows a fairly clear separation between the stages. In practice, such clear separation rarely exists, since to one degree or another the stages are carried out in parallel. The described sequence of systems analysis stages is usually not limited to a single iteration. It is rare that a problem can be solved on the first attempt. A return from any stage of analysis to previous stages is possible. Thus, systems analysis is an iterative process. Therefore, during analysis, it is necessary to be flexible, reassess the results, and, in some cases, revise the ideas originally incorporated into the analysis. Such reassessments of results should not be considered wasted effort. Of course, constant changes to goals, paths, and means of achieving them are unacceptable, as they hinder clear orientation. But equally dangerous is the desire to solve a given problem in defiance of the actual course of events.